Demographic Transition and Empowerment of Human Resources
- Strategies for Population Policies and Programs -

Dr. Haryono Suyono
Member of AUICK International Advisory Committee
Former Coordinating Minister for Social Welfare and Poverty Alleviation, Indonesia

Demographic Transition

Dr. Haryono began his presentation with a global overview of demographic transition. He explained that life expectancy of 45 years was not uncommon prior to around 1750. The largely agrarian societies at that time compensated high mortality with high fertility, as larger numbers of people were required to carry out labor-intensive agricultural activities. Then technological advances spurred self-reliance and improved quality of life, and subsequently declining mortality was followed by lower fertility. In short, he noted, an era of high mortality, high fertility (TFR=4.5-6.0) and 45-year life expectancy was succeeded by a period of moderate mortality, moderate fertility (TFR=3.0-4.5) and 45-55-year life expectancy.

From 1750 onward, the world experienced massive population growth. The total world population doubled from 1750 to 1850 and tripled from 1850 to 1950. Hence, from 1750 to 1950, the era of European settlement, world population grew six-fold.

Into the modern age, further technological development, urbanization, medical innovations and health care intervention spurred lower mortality and lower fertility, resulting in relatively slow population growth. Dr. Haryono pointed out that in many countries, the speed of fertility decline closely followed the pace of decreasing mortality, a process that was largely aided by public policy intervention including UNFPA efforts. He mentioned Taiwan, China, Singapore and Korea as prime examples of countries that experienced rapid fertility change, as they managed to successfully reduce fertility within the span of a generation. By contrast, he noted, in the United Kingdom it took around 100 years for fertility to decease to levels that reflected lower mortality.

Dr. Haryono discussed the so-called demographic bonus that results in rapid fertility declines, whereby a proportionally large working-age population is less burdened by child and old-age dependency and better able to contribute to raising a nation's wealth and prosperity. This increased capital can be used to invest in such areas as health and education for long-term benefits. He explained, however, that effective population policy planning and sound implementation of programs are required to take advantage of the demographic bonus, and concluded that many countries have not yet been successful in this endeavor. He said political talk and discussion are often not followed up by concrete effective actions.

Dr. Haryono stressed that demographic transition does not mean the end to population growth. He pointed out that China and India (the two "giants"), Bangladesh, Indonesia and Pakistan (now having populations over 100 million), as well as the smaller countries of Southeast Asia have doubled their populations over the past half century and continue to see high population growth.

Furthermore, he raised the issue that in addition to population growth, we are witnessing rapid change in population structures. He pointed out that in several countries the 15-64 age group has doubled or tripled in a generation, as has the 65+ age group. He then asked the question if budgets for health, education, poverty reduction and facilities for the aged doubled or tripled at the same time. The simple answer, he said, is no.

New Strategies: Empowerment of the People

Dr. Haryono drew attention to the fact that although improvements have been made in infant mortality, maternal mortality, life expectancy, adult literacy and income per capita, many developing countries remain low on the Human Development Index (HDI). He stressed that for effective progress, future strategies must be based on commitment and focused on people and their communities. Moreover, participation and empowerment of the people, all people including women, youths and the poor, are key elements for success. He was clear on the point that empowering people enables them to contribute to the betterment of their society. He mentioned the following as some specific strategy objectives:

1. Putting people first: People have the right to be free from ethnic and gender discrimination, free to pursue equal opportunities and free from fear.
2. Changing not just attitudes but behavior: Promoting knowledge and awareness must be followed up by ensuring people's involvement and participation.
3. Introducing Millennium Development Goals and HDI. Participation of the people is needed and targets must be met with numbers.
4. Introducing integrated approaches: Human development, family income and environment must be simultaneously addressed yet each person should be able to participate according to his/her choices. Ensuring health, education and income will help empower the people.
5. Maintaining local government and NGO commitment: Focus should be placed at the local level to help people help themselves.

Millennium Development Goals

Finally, Dr. Haryono outlined the Millennium Development Goals and emphasized some strategies and issues that deserve special attention. They are:

1. Eradication of extreme poverty: Areas of focus include education (especially for women) and micro-credit or village banking systems to help individuals and groups set up and run small businesses. In contrast, national governments usually just focus on large-scale projects in cities.
2. Universal education: Primary school education must be universal, but we should also aim for high-quality education and higher education. Improved education helps break the poverty cycle.
3. Gender equality: Support for female education is needed as well as special training for women so they can realize the objectives of good health and self-reliance.
4. Reducing child mortality: Efforts should be people-centered and focused at the local level.
5. Improving maternal health: In Indonesia, maternal mortality has declined but it remains the highest among ASEAN countries (306 per 100,000 births).
6. Combating HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases: HIV/AIDS in particular is an increasing concern in Asia.
7. Ensuring environmental sustainability: Special attention is particularly needed for the poor to help them live in a decent environment.
8. Developing global partnerships for development: Partnerships must also be maintained between the government and private sectors and developed through international cooperation and networking, such as through AUICK. Working together we can achieve better results.

Questions and Answers

Q: How can we encourage private sector involvement in family planning?

A: Government initiatives can focus on involving the private sector, either directly or through NGOs. Private sector incentive is usually in the form of monetary profit, so success in this aspect is needed. But if profit can be generated by private sector involvement, this in turn enables more money to be directed at family planning initiatives.

Q: Can the Earth support expanding populations?

A: Yes. The Earth can support growing populations as long as people are educated to know how to carry out sustainable economic and social practices.

Editor's Note: This article is a summary of a presentation delivered by Dr. Haryono Suyono at the First 2005 Workshop. AUICK takes full editorial responsibility for the content.