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Research Note

ASIAN URBANIZATION IN THE NEW MILLENNIUM

In March 2005 AUICK published the second of its two major books, "ASIAN URBANIZATION IN THE NEW MILLENNIUM." Edited by two members of AUICK's International Advisory Committee, Professor Gayl D. Ness and Dr. Prem Talwar , the book is designed to bring together in one volume a great deal of national data on urbanization from the countries of the region. The book is published by Marshall Cavendish of Singapore, and is available from the publisher.

Asian Urbanization in the New Millennium

by Gayl D. Ness & Prem P. Talwar (Editors)
Price: US$26.95
Format: Paperback, 507 pages
Published in Singapore by Marshall Cavendish Academic.
First edition in 2005.
ISBN: 9812103457

For 14 of the Asian countries, local teams of scholars and urban administrators worked together to gather a standard set of national urban data for the years 1950-2000, with projections to the year 2025. The fourteen countries include Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka in South Asia; Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam in Southeast Asia; and China, Republic of Korea, Japan and Taiwan from East Asia. Four countries, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Nepal were treated in one chapter by the editors, in part due to the relatively smaller amounts of data available for those countries. A list of the countries and their authors is appended at the end of this note.

Most of the country chapters follow an outline designed by the editors. They open with a discussion of the definition the country uses for the term "urban." This is followed by data on urbanization for the period 1950-2000, a discussion of the sources of urban growth, the characteristics of urban migrants, and data on the system of cities, or the changing distribution of city sizes over the past half century. Next is a section on various social and economic measures of urban-rural differences, laying out the data normally available in national publications. This is followed by the country's official projections of urban growth for the next quarter of a century. The chapters close with a brief discussion of the problems and benefits of urbanization and the government's overall plan for the urban future. The intent was to bring together in one volume a roughly similar set of data on various aspects of urbanization for the major countries of Asia to facilitate comparative research by scholars of Asian urbanization.

The editors provided an introductory chapter that explores the long history of Asian urbanization, showing how Asia has for centuries contained most of the world's largest cities. Moreover, most of those large Asian cities were inland cities, administrative centers that effectively organized a large and productive hinterland. This changed with Western industrialization in the 19th century, when those countries came to contain most of the world's largest cities. Western industrialization also produced a new pattern of large cities, most of which are port cities, reflecting the globalization that Western industrialization has brought. That is now changing again, as port mega cities have developed in all regions of the world. The introduction also explores differences between the sub-regions of Asia: East, Southeast and South. East Asia is now the most urbanized (42%) of the three, followed by Southeast Asia (40%) and South Asia (37%).

A concluding chapter provides a summary of major highlights of Asian urbanization. Urbanization is proceeding rapidly in all countries of Asia. The exceptions are Japan, Republic of Korea, Singapore and Taiwan, all of which have become almost fully urbanized. In the world as a whole and in Asia the rate of urban growth reached a peak in 1965-70, and growth rates have been declining steadily since then. Urban growth rates, however, have been and remain greater than rural or total growth rates. In 2000 five countries already showed negative growth rates in rural areas and by 2030 nine more will show absolute rural declines. Although the rates of urbanization have slowed, the absolute numbers remain very large, especially by historical and world comparisons. The rapid urbanization of the western world in the 19th century brought hundreds of millions of new urbanites; the growth in Asia today brings billions!

The editors also use the country data to make two more useful general statements. One concerns the sources of urban growth. For years AUICK has noted in its reports and publications that urban growth has three sources: natural increase, net migration, and administrative boundary or definitional changes. Most is known about urban natural increase, or the differences between birth and death rates. Far less is known about the magnitude of net migration, though demographers have made estimates by subtracting natural increase from total increase in urban population sizes. There is almost no systematic examination of how changes in urban definitions or official changes in administrative boundaries have contributed to urban growth. These country studies allow us to see that most countries have undertaken administrative adjustments that have affected urban magnitudes. Typically these changes bring a spurt of urbanization in one ten year period, reflecting how census schedules affect the path of change. Moreover, these spurts can increase the level of urbanization by as much as 25 to 50 percent.

The second observation concerns Primacy, or the observation of the relative size of major cities. For some years and for the world as a whole, it is been observed that a relatively stable Primacy Ratio can be found: The second largest city of a country is half the size of the largest; the third is one third of the largest and so on. It has also often been argued that where this pattern does not follow, where the largest city is many times the size of the next largest, this High Primacy Rate is somehow detrimental to national urban development. The chapters show us two things about Primacy. First, most Asian countries conform rather closely to the normal primacy ratio pattern. But Asia also contains some of the highest primacy ratios. In Thailand, Bangkok is by one measure 22 times as large as the second largest city; Manila is almost eight times, and Yangon almost five times as large as the second city. In some countries the primacy ratio is declining, in other increasing and in still others remaining roughly stable. Moreover, the analysis could find no evidence that the primacy ratio is related to any measure of social or economic development. Southeast Asia provides a useful comparison. Thailand has the world's highest primacy ratio, its neighbor, Myanmar, also has an unusually high ratio. Thailand's high ratio is associated with rapid economic growth and increased human welfare; Myanmar's is associated with economic stagnation and low levels of human welfare.

The final chapter closes with a series of observations for the future: what research issues should be addressed, and what social issues require more attention in the future.

Editors

Dr. Gayl D. Ness
AUICK IAC Member
Professor Emeritus
University of Michigan, U.S.A.

Dr. Prem P. Talwar
AUICK IAC Member
Adjunct Professor
School of Public Health, University of North Carolina
India

Country Authors