Dr. Hirofumi Ando
President, AUICK

Dr. Hirofumi Ando, President of AUICK, explained the phenomena of population aging, and its significance in the AUICK Associate Cities (AACs).

When discussing population issues, it is important to keep in mind three key dimensions, and the three key factors affecting those dimensions. Population growth, structure (usually in terms of age structure) and distribution (including urbanization - the natural growth of cities), are affected by birth rates, death rates and population migration. 

Historically, three main stages of demographic transition have been when there is little population growth due to high mortality and birth rates; when improved health measures and economic development with declining mortality rates have increased populations; and when declining mortality and birth rates mean little (and in some cases even negative) population growth. The latter case is now apparent in many countries. 

Before 1915, the world’s population was under a billion, but subsequent sharp growth led to 3 billion people by 1955, and 5 billion by 1987. Over the last twenty years this figure has reached nearly 6.7 billion, and is likely to be over 9 billion by 2050. With this rapid population growth comes population aging, a phenomena which is increasing in the countries of the nine AUICK Associate Cities (AACs), and even more significantly in Japan (see graph).

% age 60+ (10 countries)

The United Nations defines an aging society by its aged population reaching 7% of the total population. The speed of population aging in a country is also measured by the time it takes this percentage to double (from 7% to 14%). If the categorization of aged is applied as over 60 years of age, this doubling in size of the elderly population had occurred in Japan by 1984, and is set to be reached in China and Thailand in 2013. The other AAC countries’ aged populations will have all reached 14% at various points by 2050. This gives each country a different time scale by which to prepare systems to support large numbers of aged people. As Thailand’s society started aging early (7% of its population over 60 in 1987, doubling by 2013), the country has had to develop strong programs to sustain its elderly citizens, as is evident in Khon Kaen (see Best Practice Report).

Other countries such as Bangladesh, the Philippines and Pakistan have aging populations which will have doubled to 14% by the 2040s, but the most striking figures are in Japan, whose over-60 population had reached 14% by 1984, and stood at 26% in 2008. 

The scale of community support necessary for aged populations can be seen by focusing on population birth and growth rates, which indicate the numbers of younger people that each society will have to support its aged. Countries which have implemented successful birth control programs, those with lower total fertility rates (TFR), face the prospect of fewer young to support the aged. Stronger family and community structures will be necessary, and public structures must be developed, which should treat the aged as a valuable human resource, rather than simply an economic burden. 

In this context, the AUICK workshop participants’ sharing of information and knowledge, and their witnessing of the programs directed at the aged population of Kobe, can lead to their developing innovative programs to prepare to support the aged populations of AUICK Associate Cities (AACs) as they continue to grow.