Dr. Gayl D. Ness, Member of AUICK International Advisory Committee

Dr. Gayl D. Ness, outlined the challenges of the demographic transition and the importance of population related data for city planning, and the City University Partnership (CUP) fostered by AUICK.

Until 1800, most of the worlds 25 largest cities were in Asia. And most of these were inland cities, organizing the hinterland to bring wealth. Only since about 1800, larger cities have been seaports, as the world’s economic system has been tied together by the seas. Historically, Asian cities have had a tradition of strong, central political leadership. This is advantageous to today’s urban planners, in terms of implementing strategies for controlled urban development, and managing the challenges that arise with increases in urban populations. 

From the early 1700s to around 1950, the urban population of Europe increased by 400-500 million people. Such a shift in Asia is occurring today, but it involves 3 to 4 billion people, and is happening over 50 – 100 years, rather than 250 years. This unprecedented demographic change requires governments to act urgently to put in place policies and programs for the welfare of increasing numbers of citizens. 

The Demographic Transition, from high to low mortality and fertility, is a fundamental transition in the population. Like urbanization, it started in the West and is now moving throughout the rest of the world: most rapidly in East Asia, then Southeast Asia and South Asia. Like urbanization, that transition is now moving far more rapidly than in the past and involves billions, not hundreds of millions of people. 

The Demographic Transition involves basic challenges to a society. First, when mortality is high, the challenge is to develop an extensive health care system, especially in the rural areas, to reduce mortality. Next, with rapidly falling mortality and high fertility, we get a great increase in young people. This means a great need for schools and for jobs for young people. Without that, young people can be a highly destabilizing force. But it also means a need for family planning programs to reduce fertility. In East and most of Southeast Asia, the health and family planning challenges have been met, and now we face a third challenge: aging. Now for many Asian countries the challenge will be to find a way to assist the aging population to live healthy and productive lives. 

Asia’s rapid urbanization poses a series of major challenges. With growing populations, cities have to deal with increased slum housing, congested streets and social tensions, especially where populations are younger. Solid waste management policies also have to be addressed, to prevent the huge increases in waste that would otherwise result form increasing urban populations. If projected population increases are matched by increases in the current levels of waste produced per person, future amounts of waste can also be predicted, as well as related financial, environmental and other implications. It is important for planners to have the relevant data on population and waste, so that the right strategies can be formed. 

Here, partnerships between city governments and universities can play an important role. Urban administrators are on the front line of organizing action to solve problems, but university professors can measure the problems and think of ways to solve them. City governments often work with universities for specific projects, but to bring about a more sustainable, long-term collaboration, AUICK facilitates the City University Partnership (CUP) in its associate cities. 

To establish routine communication, a committee is set up, typically including two or three city administrators and two university professors. By meeting regularly, the committee can discuss a set of issues to be addressed and measurements to be made, and mobilize the academic support to address the issues and make the measurements. The university then has a better understanding of the needs of an administration, and can provide the administration with the figures and strategies to meet those needs. The city also gains a better understand of how the universities can help address critical urban issues. 

In Kobe and the AUICK Associate Cities (AACs) academic studies show how data provision to governments can inform toward improved planning. Danang’s waste grew from 0.12 tons per person in 1990 to 0.33 in 2006. Since then, the ratio has declined to 0.27. If this is used as a base and measured against projected population increase until 2025, the difference between a 1% increase and a 1% decrease in waste will be more than 250,000 tons per year. This leads to work on reducing waste. In 2005, Surabaya’s waste generation to population ratio was 1.06 tons per person. If we use that as a base and calculate 1% increases and decreases to 2025, the difference is about 1,500 tons per day. 

By generating accurate figures and looking to the future, the City University Partnerships can highlight how small percentage reductions in waste will greatly decrease the total amount produced. Then, tons of waste can be translated into cost of waste, to show the city governments the financial benefits of these reductions, and CUP collaboration can formulate the citizen awareness campaigns, recycling programs and more efficient waste management methods to make them happen.