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The 2004 Baseline Survey
on Millennium Development Goals
in AACs
Chapter 4 Surabaya,
Indonesia
CONTENTS
7.1. Population Dynamics
7.2. Health Component 7.3. Educational Component 7.4. Economic Component 7.5. Environment Component Surabaya is the second largest city in Indonesia. The area is about 290 square kilometers in a coastal and lowland area. It is located between 7°12’ – 7°21’ South Latitude and between 112°36’ – 112°East Longitude. Surabaya is situated in the South of Madura Strait which also borders it to the East. To the South of the city is Sidoarjo, and to West is Gresik. The altitude varies from 3 to 10 m above sea level. Surabaya is a tropical city. The temperature is almost a year-long constant from 25 degrees centigrade in the night to 34 degrees in the day. The average humidity varies from 65 to 85 percent. Rainy season starts from October to April, and dry season from May to September. The city has about 2,7 million inhabitants during the night, and about 300 thousand people commute every day to Surabaya from the surrounding areas. Surabaya is one of the oldest cities in Indonesia. The evidence of historical heritages shows that the existence of Surabaya began since 13th century, before the Western colonization era. At that time, Surabaya turn back a Mongol invasion. Traders from the Middle East and India brought Islam to Surabaya in the 14th century. The Western colonization era in Surabaya started when Dutch landed in Surabaya at the early of 17th century. Dutch and built the Kalimas River fortress. This made Surabaya into a center of East Indies Commerce for the North coast of Java. The commercial area grew in the downstream region of the Kalimas River, followed by the growing of residential area upstream. here were many ethnic groups living in the area such as: Dutch, Chinese, and Arabs, as well as many local groups from around Southeast Asia. Development of Surabaya in the earlier era city was linear along a North – South line on the banks of the Kalimas River. The development of Surabaya in the North side was spurred by Tanjung Perak Seaport in the middle of 17th century, followed by the development to the South using the river transport line connecting the South and the North part of the city. As the new Local Government Act put into effect in October 2004, government policy on decentralization comes to a new stages of decentralization. The previous Local Government Act of 1999 provides a very wide mandate to the local governments, hence in practice, local governments for the last four years emerges from the push to decentralization. Under new Local Government Act, decentralization should be implemented in such way to be in harmony with national policies. The city is led by a Mayor. Under the new act he will be elected by the people[1]. Direct election for the mayor was implemented in June 2005. The existing city council members were elected through a general election on April 2004, in which 45 city council members were selected through the ballot. The election system is on a semi-district plan. [1] Under the Local Government Act 1999, a mayor is elected by city council members. The city council members are elected through general election. In the general election, the people vote for a party, then the parties who win the election appoint their representatives to be Local Council members.
According to the new regulation, starting 2005, Mayor will be no longer elected by City Council Members, but the Mayor will be elected by the citizens. Divisions under First Assistance: Divisions under Second Assistance There are four Specialized Agencies There are four Offices There are 23 Departments Surabaya has prepared a number of programs to support human development. The programs include:
4. MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS Following the United Nations’ Millennium Development Goals program, Indonesia and Surabaya have established the following four areas as high priority activities.
All programs are linked each other to improve urban environmental quality. Various activities have been implemented and planned to fulfill the programs.
Figure 4.1. Organizational structure of City Government of Surabaya  7. PROJECTION OF MDG’S INDICATORS Projections were made from 1990 to 2015 when the initial data in 1990 were available, otherwise the available data were used for initial data. There are three scenarios for projecting the MDG indicators. First, a Medium Range Scenario was constructed in which the number or proportion or rate in 2015 will be reduced by 50 percent of the initial number or proportion or rate. Second, a High Range Scenario was constructed in which the number or proportion or rate in 2015 will be 50 percent higher than that Medium Range Scenario in 2015. Third, a Low Range Scenario was constructed in which the number or proportion or rate in 2015 will be 25percent lower than that Medium Range Scenario in 2015. The population figures of Surabaya City, according to the 1990 and 2000 population census were respectively 2,473,272 and 2,599,796 (BPS, 2550). The following graphs and table show the population dynamics based on medium, high, and low range scenario. In those scenarios the population components such as CBR and CDR tend to decrease, while the population size tends to increase. Overall, in 2015 based on three scenarios the population size will not exceed 3 millions. Table 4.1. Population project in Surabaya City 1990-2015  Based on these assumptions, the population size in the building of the projection was 2,473,272 as reported by population census in 1990. In 1990 the CBR was 14.55 per 1000 births, and the CDR was 6.6 per 1000 births, in-migration were assumed to be zero (Made Ari Brata, 2006, personal communication). Based on the medium range scenario in 2015 CBR and CDR will decrease 50 percent to be respectively 7.28 per 1000 population and 3.3 per 1000 population. Hence, in 2015 the population size will be 2,757,620. Based on the high range scenario in 2015 CBR and CDR will be 50 percent higher than 7.28 and 3.3 respectively. Hence, in 2015 the population size will be 2,947,249. Moreover, based on the low range scenario in 2015 CBR and CDR will be 25 percent lower than 7.28 ans 3.3 respectively. Hence, in 2015 the population size will be 2,844,467. Figure 4.2 shows that in the beginning of the projection, three scenarios result in the same line, after 1994 they result in different lines until 2015. Figure 4.2. Population project in Surabaya City 1990-2015  7.2.1. Reduce Child Mortality through Immunization Measles Immunization One of the 8 MDGs is reducing child mortality. Measles is one of the disease that are prevalent among children that may contribute to mortality among infants and children under five years old. This disease can be prevented by an immunization intervention. The following figures and table show the projection of proportion of children to be immunized against measles based on medium, high, and low range scenarios. T4.2 Population of proportion of under-five children receiving measle immunization in Surabaya City, 1993-2015  In 2015 the population of children to be immunized against measles will be 80.07 percent, 80.95 percent, and 79.26 percent based on respectively medium, high, and low range scenarios. 7.2.2. Infant Mortality Rate A major goal is the reduction of infant mortality. Table 4.3 shows the expected of IMR under tree assumptions. In each case, we calculate an index with 1.00 as beginning IMR. As one can see the three separate scenarios begin with the same base data for 1999, and are linearly projected for the year 2015. Whereas all three scenarios indicate rapid declining IMRs, the high estimate actually depicts a more than optimistic rate that realities of today could afford to support. Among those three estimations, the medium estimate appears to be the most feasible, and could safely be used to plan for a progressive achievement. This is based on the assumption that the urban slum dwellings will still be prevalent by 2015, and furthermore the hygiene and sanitation conditions would still be below normal, although considerable improvements would already have been made. Even with that modest decline, the impact of IMR on the longevity of the people of Surabaya would be significant. Table 4.3. Projection of IMR in Surabaya City 1996-2015  Figure 4.3. Projection of IMR in Surabaya City 1996-2015  7.2.3. Reduce Child Mortality through Reducing under-five Mortality Rate Under-five Mortality Rate, or most commonly known as Child Mortality Rate (CMR) indicate the proportion of infant and children who will survive the hardships of early child-hood to celebrate their fifth birthday. This is one of the major indicators of social well-being of the population, in this case of the Surabaya Municipality. Table 4.4. Projection of under five mortality rate in Surabaya City 1996-2015  Figure 4.4. Projection of under five mortality rate in Surabaya City 1996-2015  Again, one would readily opt for the medium estimation for the year 2015, the reason being that the high scenario shows a very sharp decline only beginning in approximately 2013. This is somewhat disconcerting considering the assumption that although public health facilities would considerably improve, yet such sharp impact would not be realistic. 7.2.4. Improve Maternal Health through Enhancing Antenal Care by Professional Health Worker Antenatal care means any practices to assure a healthy pregnancy, predict and anticipate risk of pregnancy and wherever possible plan for the future safe delivery both for the mother and the baby. It includes weighing (to monitor nutritional status and predict eclampsia) and assessing blood pressure of the mother (to predict eclampsia), checking fetal health, giving tetanus toroid to the mother (to immunize her future newborn against tetanus infection) and supply the mother with sulfas ferrous tables (to anticipate anemia). The care is aimed to reduce maternal and infant mortality rates. In one period of pregnancy, the mothers are expected to have at least four antenatal cares. In public health facilities, this care could be obtained at minimal price (less than 50 cents USD) In general observers and analysts would not be surprised to see the improvement of the role of health workers in the community, especially in giving ante-natal care to pregnant mothers. On the one hand the community is made much more aware of the need for ante-natal care, and they are willing to seek professional health workers to fulfill this need. On the other, the health workers are better equipped to provide these services compared to what they would have done in the past. The following figures and table show the increase of population of pregnant mothers who are receiving antenatal care by professional health workers. Table 4.5. Projection of proportion of antenatal care by professional health workers in Surabaya City, 1993-2015  Figure 4.5. Projection of proportion of antenatal care by professional health workers in Surabaya City, 1993-2015  Depending the resources of the City Government of Surabaya, the Mayor through the Head of City Health Office could achieve the results of the high scenario or medium range scenario. Increasing the population of ANG by professional health workers in 2015 will require increasing MCH resources in Community Health Center (Pukesmas). That includes increasing the number of health posts at the Kelurahan Level as well as the number of health personnel particularly midwives. 7.2.5. Reducing Child Mortality by Enhancing Births Attended by Professional Health Worker The major causes of infant deaths are infection and low birth weight, those of maternal deaths are infection, hypertension (called pre-eclampsia and eclampsia) and bleeding. In the past, traditional birth attendants (TBAs) whose skills were passed from generation to generation attended most deliveries, but not in antenatal care. People use TBA service because it is cheap and convenient as they come from same milieu. Nowadays, their practices are diminishing, although in certain places they still can be tracked. These TBAs were suspected to spread infections due to their unhygienic practices. Sue to lack of professional skill in early detection of hypertension in pregnant women and treatment of maternal bleeding, TBAs are also suspected as giving major contribution to these high rates. To lower the mortality rates, in the early 1990s the Ministry of Health distributed newly graduated midwives to thousands of villages. Besides there are training programs for female health personnel on antenatal care for pregnant women to detect and anticipate high risk pregnancy, and hygienic and safe delivery handling in case of the absence of these midwives. Setting targets on the population of pregnant women accessing professional antenatal care and delivery attended by these professional health workers followed. The proportion of births attended by professional health workers is one of the indicators of “modernity” of mind on the one hand, and of the people’s access to public health services. The latter is most important, as in the immediate past the facts do indicate that whereas public health services are available, people are not utilizing those adequately. In this regard, it is surmised that the opposite might be happening, i.e. that there are shortages of supply for public health services in relation to the increased demand from among the populace. This increased demand, in turn, is a manifestion of the changes in people’s attitude and behavior towards health services, i.e. health behavior as compared to sickness, or illness behavior. Table 4.6. Projection of proportion of birth attended by professional health workers in Surabaya City, 1993-2015  Figure 4.6 Projection of proportion of birth attended by professional health workers in Surabaya City, 1993-2015  The three separate projections and the consolidated chart do indicate to the sentiment that the high estimate is most acceptable. This is based on the thoughts that with progress over time, people (pregnant women and their families) would tend to seek more professional services to assist in their childbirth. The increased in the Surabaya municipality would be further augmented with those actually residing in the surrounding areas to come to Surabaya proper to obtain those services. Hence also of the sharp increase of births in the city of Surabaya. Yet on the other hand, there may be instances, especially among the urban slum dwellers that they ma have sought professional help during ante-natal care but have their deliveries at their own respective home villages outside Surabaya. This is the power of custom and tradition. The third aspect which may weigh-down the high estimate is the cost of delivery in Surabaya itself, which may be too steep for the average Surabaya urban women. No matter how these up or down-weighing elements do their interplay, the net result would still be on the high estimate. Educational attainment is one of the most crucial of indicators of human development, and hence of human dignity, and the future of a nation. The global declaration of Universal Primary Education is most significant to be adhered to in all social and human development endeavors. Furthermore, Indonesia has since the beginning of 1980s declared compulsory 9 years of education for all, i.e. primary and first secondary school, regardless of sex, race and religion. The following are the situation and projections for the city of Surabaya for the year 2015. One of 8 MDGS is to achieve universal primary education. The following figures and tables show the trend of people in Surabaya who participate in primary, secondary and high school level. 7.3.1. Participation Rate of Primary School As one would note educational facilities are plentiful in Indonesia, especially for this basic primary education level. The government has over time build sufficient school buildings adequate number of graduates of teachers colleges. During the 1990s things were looking up and people were encouraged that even when compulsory education were to be raised to 12 years, facilities and teachers would be adequate to cater to the inherent needs. However, with the onset of the monetary crisis in 1998, which soon after became a multi-faceted crisis, those aspirations were quenched. Not only were the school facilities deteriorating, the graduates from teachers colleges were seeking employment elsewhere. Yet, the aspirations for better and higher education still came to the fore, resulting in the constant demand for primary education. With the increasing number of children entering the school-age brackets, the number of primary school students also increased steadily. Hence, what one would observe from the steady increase over time since 1990 to 2008. Prior to 2005 it is projected that a sharp increases would occur, due to factors in the birth rate, which although already declining, those babies would already have been borne, and thus entering their school-age years. Table 4.7. Projection of proportion of people who participate in primary school in Surabaya City, 1990-2015  By 2015 the primary school participation rates will be 112.66 percent, and 111.87 percent based on perspectively medium, high and low scenarios. By considering the resources owned by the Surabaya City Government, Mayor can choose among three scenarios. Figure 4.7. Projection of proportion of people who participate in primary school in Surabaya City, 1990-2015  7.3.2. Participation Rate of Secondary School Table 4.8. Projection of proportion of people who participate in secondary school in Surabaya City, 1990-2015  Figure 4.8. Projection of proportion of people who participate in secondary school in Surabaya City, 1990-2015  Yet again, when observing projections for the Secondary School students, the picture would change somewhat. At this level, the element of cost-of-education begins to take its toll, i.e. in reducing the “push” from primary to secondary schools. The intake from the primary schools begin to diminish, although the demand for secondary education would still be high, if not even higher. In this situation, the projection for 2015 would best be the medium scenario, with the assumption that the facilities for secondary education would not be commensurating with the demand. When one begins the argument on the quality of education, particularly of the secondary schools, one would begin to observe segmentation of school-children by income and social status of their parents. It is unfortunate that data are not available to substantiate this postulate. 7.3.3. Participation Rate of High School Table 4.9. Projection of proportion of people who participate in high school in Surabaya City 1990-2015  Figure 4.9. Projection of proportion of people who participate in high school in Surabaya City 1990-2015  When entering the domain of High Schools, the picture changes somewhat from that of the Secondary Education. The intake of students into high schools begins to diminish as the academic selection processes begin to take place. This is compounded by the reduced number of parents who can support their children to continue further to high school. The socio-economic selection begin at this stage, and hence also the reduced human resources qualified enough to carry the nation through difficult times in its development. One would observe more drop outs at this stage, and the reason for the downward skew of the medium scenario, and the reduced of intakes in the coming years. The issue of quality of high school graduates also will begin to plague the planning authorities. There will be no easy remedies to this problem, and only facing the challenges would partly solve it. 7.3.4. Gender Equity In School The issue of gender equity in the school system is indeed a tough one. There is where planners are confronted with adverse norms and values, especially those holding higher value for male offspring. Although fast diminishing, there are “pockets” of culture where these still occur. Let us examine these and look into our projections into 2015. Table 4.10. Projection of ratio of girls to boys enrolling primary school in Surabaya City 1993-2015  Figure 4.10. Projection of ratio of girls to boys enrolling primary school in Surabaya City 1993-2015  Over the coming years to 2015 the proportion of girls over boys in primary schools will certainly increase, but the most optimistic scenario would still be the low one. This is based on the postulate that people in general would still hold tradition above everything else. This would especially hold true with the fear of the streamline of parents on the negative impact of “progress” and globalization. From another angle, yet unfortunate that the data do not support this, gender equality is enhanced in private schools where the more well-to-do parents enroll their children. Table 4.11. Projection of ratio of girls to boys enrolling secondary school in Surabaya City 1993-2015  Figure 4.11. Projection of ratio of girls to boys enrolling secondary school in Surabaya City 1993-2015  In the secondary school system the picture changes somewhat. Gender equity is more enhanced at this level as parents of the girls, especially, begin to realize the importance of their girl-children continuing their education to at least secondary level, and at least fulfilling the compulsory 9 years of education. Table 4.12. Projection of ratio of girls to boys enrolling high school in Surabaya City 1993-2015  Figure 4.12. Projection of ratio of girls to boys enrolling high school in Surabaya City 1993-2015  That tendency of gender equity is continued to the higher secondary school, parallel with time when values and norms begin to change the parents’ outlook of their children’s future. Again, in this situation, the medium scenario would prove to hold true. 7.4.1. Living Cost Table 4.13. Projection of proportion of people living less than USD 1/day  Figure 4.13. Proportion of people living less than USD 1/day  The actual 1993-2004 serial data pictured in Figure 4.13 shows an extreme increase of those who live below the poverty line in 1997-1999 periods. This increase was caused by economic crisis. There were considerable decreases of pro-portion of people living less than USD1 / day to 60 percent from 2001 to 2004. The high scenario also predicts that since 2005 to 2015 the proportion of people who live less than US$1/day would be decreased until 25 percent, with the actual data 58.71 percent at 2003. 7.4.2. Expense For Food Consumption Table 4.14. Projection of average consumption per capita per month of people under poverty line (Rupiah)  Figure 4.14. Average consumption per capita per month of people under poverty line  Table 4. 14 shows average consumption per capita per month of people under poverty line (in Rupiahs). There are only 1999 and 2002 actual data provided. It is unnecessary to convert the nominal amount from rupiahs into dollars, because the rate was relatively constant, leading to a conclusion that there was a significant increase (about 40 percent) in average consumption of these people. Figure 4.14 shows us the three individual projections consolidated. Observers would indicate that average consumption per capita per month of people under poverty line generally be in-creasing. This may lead them to opt the high scenario. Table 4.15. Projection of average consumption in rupiahs per capita per month for people living on less than USD 1/day  Figure 4.15. Average consumption per capita per month of people living on less than USD 1/day (Rupiah)  Table 4.15 shows the actual average consumption per capita per month of people living on less than USD 1 / day. We should note that the expenditure is expressed in rupiahs. In 1997, where economic crisis began, the rate of dollar to rupiah was quadrupled. One US dollar was equal to 8,000 rupiahs at that time. So, interpretation to actual average consumption for those living on less than USD 1 / day should be drawn carefully. A little nominal (in rupiahs) in-crease in 1997 compared to 1996 actual data means a decrease to 25 percent average consumption in US dollar. The three individual scenarios consolidated in Figure 4.15 would indicate that Average Consumption per Capita of People Living on Less Than USD 1 / day (Rupiah) generally be in-creasing. This is true , because from 1998 beyond the rates of one US dollar to rupiahs were relatively constant. and also people living below poverty line are decreasing and move up-ward to a better economic status. This will lead observers to opt for the medium scenario. 7.5.1. Access To Improved Sanitation Facilities Access to improved sanitation refers to household having bathing and human excreta disposal facilities at acceptable standard. Table 4.16 provides actual proportions of people having access improved sanitation in city of Surabaya 1990 – 2015. Table 4.16. Projection of proportion of people with access to improved sanitation  Figure 4.16. Projection of proportion of people with access to improved sanitation  Figure 4.16 shows that from 1990 to 1998 the proportions produced by three scenarios in crease coincicidently, after 1999 the proportions increase differently. Assuming all assumptions under the projections hold, by 2015 the proportion of people with access to improved sanitation will be less than 100 percent. When the City Government has a strong commitment to protect the people against diseases due to bad sanitation, the government should plan properly by considering this projection. 7.5.2. Access To Safe Water Accessing to safe water is a strategy for achieving one of the 8 MDGs reducing child mortality as well as improving maternal health. Diarrhea that is due to Vibrio cholera, Shigella sp is usually transmitted through water called water borne diseases. When most people in the City of Surabaya consume safe water they will be protected against water borne diseases. Most children under five years old and pregnant mothers particularly from poor child mortality and improve maternal health. The City of Surabaya is a well-watered city. Its two rivers, Kalimas and Surabaya rivers, provide sufficient water. Unfortunately, along with the industrial development, these rivers are heavily polluted by untreated waste from industrial centers upstream. People of Surabaya consume safe water provided by municipal government and clean water from water-pump and well to obtain clean water. We should be careful while interpreting ‘safe water access’ in Surabaya. The definition of safe water that widely accepted is water that meet good physical, biological, and chemical criteria. Meanwhile it is agreed that clean water needs further process before consumed. Surabaya municipal government manages five water-processing units which end product meets those criteria. Raw water from Surabaya River is the main source of safe water production by these units. Beside municipal facilities, there are private institutions manages smaller scale production units, especially in exclusive estates. The total debits of safe water produced by the processing units in 1999-2002 were ranged from 5,028 to 6,261 liters per second. In the same period, the total per month safe water production was ranged from 15,445,000 to 19,923,000 cubic meters (Surabaya in Figure, 2002). This product then distributed through pipes extended to registered consumers: house-holds, business centers, industries, social institutions, and government offices, pooling depots, ports and other cities. Where pipes cannot access households, city government provides water tanks to pooling depots. Along the way to the in-house pipe-water consumers, there were leaks detected due to corrosion. In fact most water-pipe network is established before 1970. At those points there might occur contamination, which reduce its quality into clean even un-hygienic water. Thus the real 1993-2003 proportions might be lower than those reported above. Bigger proportion of the population who don’t has in-house water-pipe, take safe wa-ter from depots in various containers of their own or buy from retailers. Added problem arise because the water containers carried by these people are usually not hygienic. Table 4.17. Projection of proportion of people with access safe water in Surabaya City 1990-2015  Figure 4.17. Projection of proportion of people with access safe water in Surabaya City 1990-2015  Considering the population dynamics and the further development of Surabaya into center of business, education and health referral facilities in Eastern part of Indonesia, it is likely that the number of safe water consumers will increase and the in-migrant and commuter consumers are mis-counted as members of Surabaya people. Thus, leading observers to agree with the scenarios. Planners would rather opt for the low scenario, because extending water-pipe infrastructure to support the medium and high scenario will be too costly. 7.5.3. Land Covered by Forest One of the 8 MDGs is ensuring environmental sustainability. This includes the program that makes clean air and blue skies by developing forests in the city. The city of Surabaya is growing rapidly to be a large metropolitan area as a center of business in the eastern part of Indonesia. The City Government finds it difficult to control improper land use to some extent against sustainable environment in which the area of land covered by forest remains steady at 1,228.6 hectares over the years. The City Government should have the strong commitment to expand the land covered by forest. The following figures and tables show the projection of land covers by forest that should be achieved in 2015 in order to fulfill the global commitment of MDGs that was already signed by the Indonesian Government in UN Submit. Table 4.18. Projection of proportion of the area of land covered by forest  Figure 4.18. Projection of proportion of the area of land covered by forest  Figure 4.18 stay constant in 1990 – 2003 period, the high and medium projection scenarios at the consolidated graph indicate the optimistic growth in 2001-2015. However, observers would likely opt for the medium scenario, considering the growth of slum area, which restrict the extension of forest area. 7.5.4. Vehicles and Air Quality Air quality is another important aspect of environmental protection. Monitoring air quality periodically and regulating the vehicles that operate in the City are strategies for protection air quality. There is limited equipment for monitoring air quality in the City and a lack of regulations of vehicle use in the City. However, by developing vehicle-air quality models and computing the projections of vehicle growth rate and the consequent rate of air pollution, the City Government can be supported by this study in developing vehicle use regulations and air quality control. Todo so several assumptions must hold. First, we assume that vehicle change rate (RATE 1) and air CO change rate (RATE 2) are constant over time, the vehicles are respectively 0.008 and 0.05.Second, air CO2, SO2 and NOx change rates are the same (RATE 3= RATE 4= RATE 5= 0.1.Third), there is an interaction effect between RATE 1 and RATE @ that influences the additional CO, CO2, SO2 ans NOx concentrations in the air. With these assumptions, it is possible to model vehicle growth and its impact on air quality. The links can be modeled using the STELLA program as follows. Figure 4.19. Vehicle-air quality model  Figure 4.20. Trend of the number of vehicle, air CO, Co2, SO2, NOx concentration in Surabaya City 1990-2015  Table 4.19. Projection of vehicle growth, air CO, Co2, SO2, NOx change  Table 4.19 shows that in 2015 the number of vehicles operating in the city may increase by 22.04 percent. This may results in a 1.0 percent increase of CO concentration, 2.0 percent increase of CO2 concentration, 2.0 percent of NOx concentration, while SO2 concentration is relatively constant by assuming there is no order sources of air pollution. Since the growth of vehicle use is considerably high, the government should issue regulations for emission tests for old vehicles, providing public transportation that is easy to access, convenient, safe and cheap. 8.1. Limitation of the Study The study relies on the available data provided by BPS (Central Board of Statistic), and the City Government of Surabaya. Most data are incomplete. However, they are still useful for the initial value estimates required for STELLA application. The rates are developed in such a way that the results of projections are plausible. Where variables to be used are not as complete as expected in MDGs, a proxy is used to adjust the fulfillment of MDGs. 8.2. Projection for Achieving MDGs 8.2.1. Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger By 2015, it is expected the proportion of people who live with less than USD 1 per day will have declined from about 50 percent today to between 25 and 39 percent. In 2015, it is expected that the average monthly costs of food consumption (Rupiah/month) for people living less than USD 1 will rise from about 70,000 Rupiahs in 1999 to between 87,000 and 107,000 Rapiah (about USD 1.60 and USD 2.30). 8.2.2. Achieve universal primary education Indonesia has had universal primary education for the past 30 years. 8.2.3. Promote gender equity and empowerment woman Universal primary education for moth boys and girls was achieved about 30 years ago. At present girls are just under half of all students and it is respected that by 2015 there will be complete equality. At the middle and secondary schools, the proportion of girls is less than half, but it is steadily rising. By 2015 it is projected that girls will be over 85 percent of the boy's enrollment in the secondary school, and about 66 percent of boys in high school. The literacy data are puzzling and possibly inaccurate. Although there has been near universal primary education for both boys and girls since about 1970, the ratio of female to male literacy in the 15-24 age group rose from only about 10 percent in 1993 to between 18 and 30 percent in 2004 and is expected to be 22 to 45 percent by 2015. 8.2.4. Reduce child mortality By 2015 it is expected that the IMR will have fallen from its current low level of about 33 to 31. The under five year old mortality rate is also expected to fall from 40 to 37. These levels are low for a poor country and further progress is expected. 8.2.5. Improve maternal health Professional antenatal care is expected to rise from its current level of 87 percent to about 95 percent by 2015. Similarly, the percentage of births attended by professionals is expected to rise from its current level 85 percent to 95 percent. Again these levels are already high for a poor country and further progress is expected. 8.2.6. Combat HIV/AIDS In 2015, it is expected that the proportion of people who are protected against HIV/AIDS infection by condom use will increase by 78.81 percent based on medium range scenario of projection. 8.2.7. Ensure environmental sustainability In 2015, it is expected that the proportion of people who are protected the proportion of people with access to improved sanitation will increase from about 60 percent to 80-90 percent. In 2015, it is expected that proportion of people with access to safe water will only hold steady at its present level of about 95 percent. In 2005, it is expected that area of land covered by forest will increase by 5.38 percent based on the medium range scenario. The number of vehicles is expected to increase from its current level of about 850,000 to over 900,000. Consequently, the concentrations of CO, CO2, NOx will increase by respectively 1.0 percent, 2.0 percent and 2.0 percent.
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