Toshio Kuroda

I URBANIZATION PROBLEMS AS A WORLD-WIDE CONCERN

Revolution of Urbanization: A World-Wide Concern

Urbanization is a necessary product of modernization and the city is a physical construct or man-made symbol of civilization. However, the urban population in the past had virtually no influence on the world's future, because the urban population was extremely small. Even in the 1880s, the urban population accounted for less than 3 percent of that in the entire world.¹ However, it is estimated that the urban population increased from approximately 20 percent of the world population in 1920, to 36.9 percent in 1970, and will continue approaching the 50 percent (48.2 percent) mark by the year 2000. In 2025, it is anticipated that almost two-thirds of the world population (62.5 percent) will be concentrated in the urban areas (see Table 1).²

The urbanization process since the end of World War II has been so rapid that it is often reasonably called a revolution of urbanization, never experienced before in the history of humankind. The urban population in the world increased 2.5 times in only three decades from 712.1 million in 1950 to 1,776.0 million in 1980.

It should be noted that both the developing and the developed world are seriously concerned about social, economic and environmental problems caused by excessively rapid urbanization. Of course, the stage of the urbanization process and the nature of problems are quite different among countries in the developing and developed world.

The proportion of urban population to total population in the developing countries as a whole was only 32 percent even in 1985, which was less than half of that of the advanced countries as a whole (72 percent). However, it is estimated that the tempo of the urbanization process will rapidly accelerate in the remainder of this century, reaching a little over 40 percent by the year 2000 in the developing region. As clearly indicated in the 1983 Population Inquiry conducted by the United Nations, only three small island countries out of 126 developing countries (namely, Barbados, Malta and Nauru) said that they are satisfied with the present situation of population distribution.

Refer to Table 1

On the other hand, (98 percent of the developing countries are seriously concerned about urban congestion, poor housing, lack of basic services, health and education problems, as well as employment, underemployment, and so on. Urban problems have become one of the most urgent and crucial questions related to development.

In the developed countries, urbanization has already reached a remarkably high level; 72.4 percent of the population was considered as urban in 1985. Consequently, the urbanization process has slowed down. Nevertheless, urbanization and development are also important issues for the advanced countries. The level of urbanization in the highly urbanized societies is not expected to decline in the future, but the urban system may be modified due to changes in the distribution or the urban population. Even in the developed countries as well as the developing countries, however, physical problems caused by urban congestion remain chronic and from time to time become acute.³

In addition, it should be noted that urbanization in the developed countries has recently taken on quite a different complexion: there is presently a relative or even absolute decline in urban concentrations and the leveling off of urbanization in several developed countries, including Japan. Such a recent urban change, which is characterized in many ways, for example, an urban "turnaround" or counter-urbanization, has attracted the serious attention of both scholars from a theoretical standpoint, and planners concerned with national development.⁴

Unfortunately, despite the new trends of urbanization, no new theories to explain observed urban trends, and provide guidelines to cope with them, have been developed.

Lack of General Theory

It is generally agreed that in spite of variations among countries, once sustained urbanization begins, it increases rapidly, often accelerating, then decelerates while continuing to rise, until it tapers off or even reverses. In other words, it resembles an S-shaped curve. On the other hand, however, little is known about the specific points at which the tempo of urbanization changes. Even substantial changes of urbanization, through remarkable shifts in the urban hierarchy under the same rate of urbanization, tends to be overlooked by both academicians and planners. Therefore, this topic has been selected as a major objective of this Conference, which focuses on urbanization and development of medium-sized cities.

The urbanization process seems to be country specific, and it is therefore difficult to make generalizations. Again, the emergence of new urban changes like counter-urbanization or re-reverse is an additional factor which precludes the possibility of making generalizations.

Burden or Blessing?

Urbanization resulting mainly from rural-urban migration is a universal process and may therefore be a positive contributing factor to national development. But this is not to suggest that the urbanization rate in developing countries is unproblematic. The World Population Plan of Action adopted at Bucharest in 1974 pointed out that rapid urbanization and high unemployment contributed to "contamination of the environment, inadequate housing and services and social and psychological stress." Over-urbanization is very often mentioned in the discussion of urban problems in developing countries.

Historically, urbanization and city growth were essential to industrialization and modernization according to the experience of developed countries in the past. Urbanization was therefore seen as a blessing. However, under the explosive growth of cities experienced by many developing countries, this positive view has been challenged. For example, Salas argued: "over-urbanization, urban bias and the parasitic role of cities are the buzzwords: the theory compares urbanization of today with the experience of Western Europe and concludes that it has become a problem, a burden on the back of development." ⁵

It is true that there are positive and negative aspects, and also optimistic and pessimistic views regarding rural-urban migration and resulting urbanization. For example, the "blessing" theories hold that migration to the cities is part of a dynamic development process, whereas the "burden" view asserts that rural surplus population becomes an urban surplus, producing so-called "over-urbanization", in which an inefficient and unproductive "informal sector" becomes increasingly apparent.⁶

There seems to be no general theory to suggest an effective way to solve urbanization issues, and also no general concept to explain urban trends which vary significantly among developed and developing countries. The urbanization process is country specific, and there is enormous variation among regions within each country in terms of the volume and tempo of rural-urban migration. When we think about urbanization and development, spatial and temporal, specific cities have therefore to be taken into account. In this regard, this Conference could provide an extremely useful opportunity for participants to exchange views and policy information about urbanization and development issues.

II OBJECTIVES AND BACKGROUND

Urban life is essential to the social nature of the modern world. At the same time, however, urbanization and urban problems are now taking on a completely new dimension, requiring new insights and perspectives, not prepossessed with convention, in order to cope with the demographic, social and economic consequences of urbanization. The 1980 International Conference on Population and the Urban Future in Rome, sponsored by the United Nations Fund for Population Activities, was a typical manifestation of the critical nature of the urban future. This Conference focused upon cities of one million or more persons, including cities expected to have a population over five million in the year 2000. The major conclusions and recommendations were clearly shown in the Rome Declaration, adopted by the Conference through consensus. In the Declaration, however, there was no emphasis on the close interrelation between metropolitan and national planning. In order to meet the twin objectives of managed population growth and planned urbanization, the Declaration called
for: (1) the formulation of comprehensive national population policies by all countries by 1985; (2) policies for balanced rural-urban development; and (3) policies for improvement of urban areas.⁷

This Conference was not the first one that emphasized impending urbanization problems which will beset demographers in the very near future. For example, the 1974 Bucharest World Population Conference and World Population Plan of Action adopted at Bucharest showed such a concern. However, this 1980 Conference provided an important starting point for holding more sophisticated and practical meetings concerning urbanization issues.

One of the most important points emerging from the 1980 Conference was the necessity of examining urban structure, dividing urban areas into large, medium-sized and small cities. With such an understanding, two international conferences were held in 1986: the Conference on Population and Small and Medium-Sized Cities in Latin America and the Caribbean in Mexico City ⁸ and the International Conference on Population and the Urban Future in Barcelona. ⁹ The latter focused on  large cities having populations of 1 million or more by the year 2000. The Kobe Conference on Population and Development in Medium-Sized Cities in August 1987 is intended to fill a gap in the urban studies, by concentrating on medium-sized cities. The Conference contributes to a fuller understanding of the interrelationship and different functions of large, medium-sized and small cities, and it will help policy makers, planners and researchers to find ways of solving urban problems.

In addition, it should be mentioned that two more interesting international meetings on urban issues were held in Japan. One of them is a seminar, "Planned Population Distribution for Development: the Hokkaido Experience," which was sponsored by the United Nations Population Fund in Sapporo, Japan, in collaboration with the Nihon University Population Research Institute (NUPRI) and other institutions such as Hokkaido University and the Prefectural Government of Hokkaido. ¹⁰ This seminar was based on intensive studies by Japanese scholars of the historical development in Hokkaido through transmigration and the settlement of population in the nearby undeveloped land of the northern island of Japan.

The other one was the Meeting on Population Redistribution in Planned Port Cities in Kobe, Japan, from 15-17 May 1986. ¹¹ This was a follow-up research project of the Hokkaido project. This meeting, that focused upon two cities, Kobe and Singapore, was sponsored by the United Nations Population Fund and Nihon University Population Research Institute with the assistance and co-operation from the City of Kobe authorities and the National University of Singapore.

One participant of the Conference summarized the significance of the successful urban planning of these two cities as follows: ¹²

"In focusing on Kobe and Singapore, it can illustrate two cases of highly successful urban-planning in which problems of urban congestion were successfully confronted. This also illustrates one way in which population variables are integrated with overall development planning. In both cases, urban congestion was greatly reduced. The population was successfully redistributed in the process of development planning, which provided greater productivity, higher standards of living, and an increases in the quality of life."

Our major concern of this Conference in Kobe is medium-sized cities, those with projected population between one and four million by the year 2000. However, the proportional changes of population size of medium-sized cities should be examined in the light of other categories of population size of cities as well. The most pronounced shifts in urban structure of the world as a whole, have taken place in cities with 4 million and more inhabitants. This indicates that the world population tends to concentrate in large cities and major metropolitan areas.

The population of large cities (4 million and more inhabitants) has increased faster than those in the two smaller classes during 1950-1980 (see Table 2). The projection by the United Nations ¹³ to the year 2025 indicates that the share of the world's urban population in the largest city-size category will rapidly increase from 4.9 percent in 1950 to 24.5 percent in 2025. However, the share of cities with 1-4 million population, which are denied as medium-sized cities here, will also increase at least until the end of this century, and then begin to decline, from 20.9 percent in 2000 to 18.7 percent in 2025. The share of cities with less than 1 million population is estimated to follow a similar pattern of change as the medium-sized cities.

The trend for the world as a whole is mainly a reflection of the trend of the developing countries. The population in the largest city-size category is projected to reach 28.2 percent of the urban population by 2025, compared with 12.8 percent in the developed regions. On the contrary, the population in the medium-sized cities will decline from 21.0 percent in 2000 to 18.2 percent in 2025, which is comparable to 19.8 percent of the developed regions in 2025.

Refer to Table 2

A trend of more pronounced increase in the share of the urban population by cities with a population of 4 million and above is also shown in Asia as a whole (see Table 3). However, there is quite a difference between East Asia and South Asia. The population of large cities having 4 million and above in South Asia is projected to show a remarkable increase in its share in 2025. In contrast to South Asia, the share of the population of large cities in East Asia appears stagnant, and that of medium-sized cities indicates substantial increase from 18.7 percent in 2000 to 19.8 percent in 2025, which is higher than that of large cities. In South Asia, there is a remarkable increase in the share of the population of large cities and a declining trend in the share of medium-sized cities, which will be considerably lower that that of large cities, namely 18.6 percent versus 28.4 percent in 2025.

It is important to note that future changes in urban structure seem to be quite different between East and South Asia. It is true that the urbanization level in the developing areas lags behind that of developed areas. At the same time, there are also important differences among the major regions of the developing areas.

Refer to Table 3

Latin America is much more urbanized than Asia or Africa. The urban percentage in Latin America is as high as 65 percent, against 24 percent in Asia, and 29 percent in Africa in 1980. It is also important to mention that urban development in Africa and Latin America has been primarily a Western development, but in the Asian urban pattern the medium-sized cities in both the ancient past and the present, have played a strong role as integrators of land and population. ¹⁴

The definition of the optimal size of a city has been a recurrent theme in the literature on urban sociology, geography, and demography. Most of the studies show diverse opinions and suggestions, and they mainly provide theoretical arguments. However, it is necessary and important to examine this issue from a practical standpoint to come up with the definition of the optimal size of city. There are some studies indicating the developmental stage of cities based on the size of population. For example, the size of cities with 500,000 to 600,000 inhabitants is the first threshold showing advantages in social and economic conditions. The second threshold is at the level of cities having 1 to 2 million inhabitants, which is favourable in general for social and economic development. Beyond 2 million inhabitants, there is no further improvement. However, it is extremely difficult to decide the optimal size for a city.

General observations imply, however, that medium-sized cities with about one million population have played an active role as core cities to promote socio-economic development through appropriate accumulation of population and technology, scale of economies, and satisfactory infrastructures. Very few studies have been done concerning the different demographic, social, economic and administrative functions of medium-sized cities.

The primary objective of this Conference is to assist Asian countries in increasing the regional standards of living through better understanding of the urbanization process and the spatial distribution, and also to facilitate Asian governments' adoption, at national and local levels, of more comprehensive urban development measures within the context of overall development strategies. In order to achieve these basic objectives, this Conference will focus on solving the problems of population concentration in major cities of developing countries through the development of medium-sized cities, a theme which has been consistently highlighted by previous population conferences.

III URBANIZATION PROCESS AND CHANGE: THE JAPANESE EXPERIENCE

Stages of Urbanization in Modern Japan

The process of urbanization over a period of just more than 100 years, from the early years of the Meiji Era up to the present, can be divided into four sub-periods according to the following four levels of urbanization: 1:less than 25 percent; 2: 25-50 percent; 3:50-75 percent;4:75 percent and over. The first stage is the agrarian society, in which agriculture or primary industry was dominant. This is the initial stage when industrialization begins, cities start to develop and urbanization progresses slowly. It covers approximately 60 years from the beginning of the Meiji Period until 1930. The percentage of the urban population increased from about 10 percent to 24 percent. Table 4 shows the percentages of the urban to total population since 1898, with additional information about the more rigidly defined population residing in the Densely Inhabited Districts. ¹⁵

The second stage covers approximately 25 years from 1930 to 1955. During this period, the rate of urbanization rose from 24 percent to 56 percent. While the percentages of the urban population exceeded 50 percent, the percentage of workers engaged in primary industry dropped below 50 percent (more precisely, to a record 41 percent). In this sense, this stage can be called the first stage of the "urbanizing society."

Refer to Table 4

The third stage is the period of intensified urbanization. The percentage of the urban population increased from 56 percent in 1955 to 72 percent in 1970, reaching the standard of the advanced countries in only 15 years. The percentage of workers engaged in primary industry declined further from 41 percent in 1955 to less than 20 percent (19.3 percent) in 1970. The rate of urbanization in Japan during the period prior to 1955 was similar to that of the Republic of Korea (56.9 percent in 1980) and the Philippines (37.4 percent in 1980).

The fourth stage is a period following 1975, during which the proportion urban reached a level of more than 75 percent, and the percent of workers in primary industry dropped to less than 10 percent. At the same time, this was a period of so-called "social innovation," during which time dominant industries shifted toward more technologically advanced and sophisticated industrial activities, and toward service industries. The proportion of workers employed in tertiary industries reached 55.4 percent in 1980 and further increased to 57.5 percent in 1985. In terms of the level of urbanization and the type of economic activities, Japanese society entered into a new stage, which may be called that of an "urbanized society." This "urbanized" should be distinguished from an "urbanizing society" (up to the third stage of urbanization).

Figure 1 shows changes in the rate of urbanization with the percentage of the population in D.I.D. As the figure indicates, the rate of urbanization temporarily dropped between 1940-1945 due to evacuation and dispersion of the population during World War II. After the war, however, the rate started increasing dramatically, and during 1950-1955 Japan experienced the highest rate of urbanization recorded in the modern period. Thereafter, the rate continued to rise until it began to slow down recently. In other words, this urbanization trend can be described roughly by a logistical curve.

The urbanization process in Japan is currently approaching a stage of stagnation. Since the level of urbanization in 1980 exceeds 75 percent, we can consider that urbanization has practically spread nationwide. In this sense, as mentioned earlier, today's society can be referred to as an "urbanized society."

Population Concentration and Deconcentration: Reverse to Re-reverse

Needless to say, migration has played an important role in the increase of the urban population. Extensive migration took place between the three major metropolitan areas (Tokyo, Chukyo and Hanshin) and other metropolitan areas, resulting in a tremendous concentration of population in the three major metropolitan areas in the 1960s in particular. (See Table 5.) The excess of in-migrants over out-migrants in the three major metropolitan areas together amounted to approximately 8 million in the 16-year period from 1954 to 1969, when Japan experienced a highly sustained economic growth. Annual net-migrants in the three major metropolitan areas surpassed the 6 million mark in the early 1960s.

Refer to chart  (001-01.gif)

The total population in the three major metropolitan areas increased significantly from 35 million in 1955 to 50 million in 1970, adding more than 15 million, or a 46 percent increase, over the 15 year period, against only a 16 percent increase in the national population during this period. The share of the three metropolitan areas in the total population increased from 39.0 percent in 1955 to 48.2 percent in 1970.

It should be noted that population increase in the three major metropolitan areas was reinforced by a higher natural increase rate due to a tremendous influx of younger people, who contributed to the rising birth rate and declining death rate in the metropolitan areas. Massive in-migration was itself a direct factor of population increase in the metropolitan areas, and also served as an indirect factor for natural increase of the population. At the same time, rural prefectures and local areas lost a disproportionate amount of the younger population directly through out-migration and indirectly through the negative impacts on birth rates. Table 6 shows a contrasting picture of population increase and decrease in urban prefectures that constitute one of the three major metropolitan areas and in typical rural prefectures.

Many urban prefectures within the major metropolitan areas, which include such large cities as Tokyo, Yokohama, Osaka, Nagoya, Kobe and Kyoto, have shown a remarkable increase of population through high net in-migration and natural increase. It is, in one sense, surprising that only the Tokyo area has been experiencing net out-migration since the 1965-70 period. This is due mainly to the increasing trend of suburbanization of the population. Recently, Osaka Prefecture came to resemble the Tokyo Area pattern.

The large population which flowed into the three major metropolitan areas was an indispensable factor in attaining a very high economic growth by meeting the great demand of labour required there. Ironically, this extremely rapid movement of population between major metropolitan areas and the rural areas supplying labour has brought about serious social and economic problems both in the cities and in the rural areas, polarizing them into two distinct areas of population concentration. Namely, the city is heavily crowded and the rural areas are heavily depopulated. Both public and private sectors and also central and local governments have become keenly aware of the serious effects on the people's welfare of an extremely imbalanced distribution of population and labour force.

Various measures have been taken by the central government to prevent excessive concentration of population and industries in the great cities, and to promote more balanced regional development. For example, a New Industrial Cities Promotion Law was enacted in 1962, a new National Overall Development Project was adopted in 1969, and a law to stimulate the reallocation of industries was enacted in 1971. ¹⁶

Refer to Table 5

Refer to Table 6

On the one hand, concentration of industries in great cities slowed down. There was also some exodus of large factories from urban areas that took place due to increasing diseconomy of scale, reversing the earlier benefit of accumulation in large cities. Furthermore, peoples' awareness about environmental disruption in great cities, (for example, air and water pollution, traffic congestion, inadequate housing, noise disturbances)  and increasing employment opportunities in local cities and towns seemed to function as incentives for return migration. This was coined as the so-called "U-turn" migration by the author, because most of the returning young people went back to home-towns or areas more or less close to their home-towns. ¹⁷

The results of the 1970 census indicate that major transformations in redistribution of population are underway. During the quinquennial period 1965-70, large cities showed a depopulation or a remarkable slowing of increase for the first time. The twenty- three wards of Tokyo, or Tokyo Proper, and Osaka City have shown a continuous decrease of population growth rate as follows:

	1965-70	1970-75	1975-80	1980-85
Central Tokyo	0.6	2.2	3.4	0.0
Osaka	5.6	6.8	4.7	0.5

The population increase rate in the three major metropolitan areas has shown continuous decline after peaking in the 1960-65 period (14.4 percent for the five year period). It was 12.0 percent in 1965-70, 10.0 percent in 1970-75, 4.9 percent in 1975-80, and 4.2 percent in 1980-1985. The fastest growth rates for urban entities have been registered by medium-sized cities, with populations between 200,000-300,000. (The definition of a medium-sized city here is different from that of this Conference.) Table 7 shows changes in size, growth rate and percentage distribution of city populations by size of population.

These statistics clearly indicate that the "counter-urbanization" started between the 1960s and 1970s in Japan. Similar trends of migration, urban deconcentration and population increase in rural areas have been recognized in several advanced countries in Europe and in the United States. It has given an impression that by reversing a decades- old pattern of cityward migration and acceleration of emerging great cities, national settlement systems have entered a revolutionary period of counter-urbanization. Government has also taken a strong policy favoring the development of medium-sized and even small cities coupled with preventive measures of excessive concentration of population in mega-cities such as Tokyo and Osaka with policy objectives to bring about a more balanced distribution of population in the country. It is interesting to find that the re-reversing trend, or returning to the earlier pattern seems to have been emerging and accelerating, as suggested earlier through migration and urban population statistics.

Reviving Indications of Urbanization

A dramatic decline of net in-migration in the three major metropolitan areas shown in Table 5 started the early 1970s, and even turned negative (i.e., marking an excess of out-migration over in-migration) since 1976. However, the migration trend again has regained an excess of in-migration. This seems to indicate a shift from reverse to rereverse trend i.e.., deconcentration. There exists a variation of changing trends among the three major metropolitan areas. The largest metropolitan area (Tokyo) has never shown a net out-migration, though the absolute number of net in-migrants decreased remarkably, and it began to show a steady increase of an excess of in-migrants over out-migrants since 1976.

Refer to Table 7

The Chukyo Metropolitan Area shifted from net out-migration to net in-migration from 1981. Only the Hansin Metropolitan Area is still losing population through excess of out- migration over in-migration. Even in the case of Hanshin, a reversal from net out- migration to net in-migration seems quite probable in the near future.

Second, it has to be noted that as many as 26 prefectures lost population from 1955 to 1960, 25 prefectures in the period 1960-65, and 20 prefectures in the period 1965-1970. This means that their population losses were caused by heavy out-migration to metropolitan areas. However, there were only five prefectures that lost population in the period 1970-1975, and only one prefecture in both periods of 1975-1980 and 1980-85. Such a sharp decrease of prefectural loss of population suggests that they have shifted from depopulation to increasing population, mainly due to a declining trend of out-migration and/or increasing in-migration. These changes suggest a redistributional effect of counter-urbanization, leading to a more balanced distribution of population. However, it is surprising to see that according to prefectural population estimates as of October 1, 1986, 13 prefectures have shown population loss compared with 1985 census population. ¹⁸ In addition, it should be noted that these prefectures are among those which showed heavy out-migration during the high economic growth period. It implies that those rural prefectures have reached another stage of urbanization. At this moment, of course, we do not have any data to ascertain whether such a trend is the reverse of counter- urbanization or of a temporary nature.

Another indication is given by population change of the three major metropolitan areas in combination. Up to the 1970-75 period, the combined increase rate of population in the three major metropolitan areas kept a higher level than 10 percent for a five year period. It has continued to fall sharply since that period. However, it is noticeable that the rate of population increase of the metropolitan areas is still much higher than those of such rural regions as Tohoku, Hokuriku, Chugoku, Shikoku, and Kyushu.

Urban Hierarchy and Medium-Sized Cities

While considering the urban process, it is not enough to merely consider the absolute size of the urban population (scale), and the proportion of the urban population to the total population (level). It is also necessary to examine the distribution of the urban population by different sized categories. There are several reasons why the distribution pattern of the urban population by size of city should be emphasized. First, there is a great diversity in the distribution pattern among countries. Some countries are characterized by a primate city system where the population of one primate city is disproportionately large, and consequently lacking a balanced urban hierarchy. Second, demographic behavior responds more sensitively and quickly in large cities than small ones, where the people's attitude toward fertility regulation, for example, is more likely to be conservative. Third, economic activities tend to be quite different according to the size of cities. Social and cultural characteristics of the population are also divergent among different size cities.

We here are concerned with medium-sized cities in particular. Definitions of the typical medium-sized city are not universal. Each country has its own definition of "urban areas" and its own classification of urban population into different size categories. It is neither possible nor necessary to arrive at a standard definition of a medium-sized city. The issue of medium-sized cities has been discussed elsewhere, particularly at the Third Asian and Pacific Population Conference, 1982. ¹⁹

The concept of medium-sized city adopted by the United Nations Population Fund refers to cities with population of one to four million, including cities which are projected to have less than four million inhabitants by the year 2000.

A brief introduction of urbanization by size category of cities in Japan will be made. Table 7 shows urban population change by size of cities, but does not show medium- sized cities separately. Table 8 shows urban population by three categories, a large city having more than four million, a medium-sized city with a population of one to four million, and other small cities.

From the Table, we can see that large cities generally show a continuous declining trend, not only in absolute numbers, but also in proportion in the total population. While the size of the populations of all small cities together is the largest, their share in the total population has been nearly constant. Moreover, it is interesting to see that the population of medium-sized cities is continuously increasing, both absolutely and relatively.

Refer to Table 8

Such a steady increasing trend of population in the medium-sized cities suggests the increasingly important role medium-sized cities play in the development process. The interrelationship among large, small and medium-sized cities should be examined, carefully taking the demographic, economic and social contexts into account.

1. Philip M. Hauser et al, Population and the Urban Future, State University of New York, Albany, 1982, p.1.

2. United Nations: Estimates and Projections of Urban, Rural and City Population, 1950-2025: The 1982 Assessment. ST/ESA/SER.R/58, 1985.

3. Population and the Urban Future, Hauser and others, State University of New York Press, Albany, 1982, p. 44.

4. Comprehensive, detailed discussion on studies and theories regarding this new phenomenon is given by Piotr Korcelli in his paper, "The turnaround of urbanization in developed countries," in Population, Migration and Development: Proceedings of the Expert Group on Population Distribution, Migration and Development, Hammamet, 21-25 March 1983, United Nations, New York, 1984, pp. 349-378. A recent paper by Beale and Fuguitt discusses population growth in the rural and small town areas of the United Stated in the 1970-80 decade. However, it is pointed out that in the first three years of the 1980s, non-metropolitan growth diminished, whereas metropolitan growth has continued its previous pace. He concludes that the recent slowing of non-metropolitan growth nationally is quite real, but is not a return to the cityward outpouring of people observed the generation after 1940. See Calvin L. Beale and Glenn V. Fuguitt, "Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Growth Differentials in the United States Since 1980," CDE Working Paper 85-6, Center for Demography and Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Wisconsin.

5. The State of World Population 1986 by Rafael M. Salas, Executive Director of the United Nations Fund for Population Activities, p. 6.

6. Ibid, p 7.

7. Hauser, P. M., Gardner, R. W., Laquian, A.A., and El-Shakhs, S., Population and the Urban Future Albany,NY: State University of New York Press, 1982 (published in co-operation with the United Nations Fund for Population Activities), Foreword.

8. Conference on Population and Small and Medium-sized Cities in Latin America and the Caribbean, Report, United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) in co-operation with the Government, of Mexico, Mexico City, 24-28 February 1986.

9. Report of the International Conference on Population and the Urban Future, 1986, Barcelona, 19-22, May 1986, United Nations Population Fund, New York, 1986.

10. Planned Population Distribution for Development, Hokkaido Experience, United Nations Population Fund, 1981.

11. Final Report: Population Redistribution in Planned Port Cities, UNFPA/ NUPRI Meeting on Population Redistribution in Planned Port Cities, May 15-17, 1986, Kobe, Japan, 1986, Nihon University Population Research Institute, 1986.

12. Ibid., p. 168 (comments made by Professor Gayl Ness).

13. United Nations, Estimates and Projections of Urban, Rural and City Populations, 1950-2025: The 1982 Assessment. New York: United Nation.

14. Comments made by Professor Gayl D. Ness at the Second Steering Committee] Meeting of the Asian Conference on Population and Development in Medium-Sized Cities in New York, 22-24 June 1987.

15. Urban population usually refers to the population residing in cities (shi= Japanese) defined administratively. However, after the Town and Village Merger Acceleration Law was established in 1953, there was a considerable enlargement of shi areas through the absorption of neighboring machi and mura as well as the increases in the number of shi due to the new incorporation of former machi or mura into shi. As a result, many shi came to encompass the scarcely inhabited agricultural areas in their jurisdiction. In this sense, all shi can hardly represent the pure urban area nowadays. Under these circumstances, the concept of Densely Inhabited District that was developed by the Statistics Bureau has been applied since the 1960 Census. A Densely Inhabited District (DID) is denned as an area within a shi, ku, machi, or mura that is composed of a group of contiguous enumeration districts each of which has a population density of about 4,000 inhabitants or more per square kilometer, and whose total population exceeds 5,000 as of October 1 of the respective census year. Transportation, Economic Advisory Council. Overall Planing Bureau of the Economic Planning Agency, 1972 (in Japanese).

16. Muramatsu. M. and T. Kuroda, "Chapter 23: Japan, " in Population Policy in Developed Countries, edited by Bernard Berelson (1974) Pp. 704-730. New York: The Population Council.

17. Kuroda, T. Nihon Jinkou no Tenkan Kozo (Transitional Structure of Japanese Peculation), enlarged edition (1983). Tokyo: Kokon-Shoin.

18. Population Estimates as of October 1, 1986, National and Prefectural Population by Age and Sex, Bureau of Statistics, Management and Coordination Agency, 1987.

19. Bose, A., The Role of Medium Size Cities in the Urbanization Process. Asian Population Studies Series No. 58, Third Asian and Pacific Population Conference (Colombo, September 1982)-Selected Papers, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Bangkok, Thailand, United Nations, New York, 1984, pp. 178-186. Other interesting papers are those presented for the "Expert group Meeting on the Role of Small and Intermediate-sized Cities in National Development" held at Nagoya, Japan, 26 January to 1 February 1982, sponsored by the United Nations Centre for Regional Development, and also the report of the meeting. A most recent conference dealing with this issue was the Mexico Conference on Small and Medium-Sized Cities of 1986.