| 4. Issues of Validity,
Reliability
and the Impact of Position
One of the critical issues in this type of self-administered
questionnaire is assessing the responses of the administrators. Are
they accurate? When they report that in-migration flows are
substantial, are they correct in their assessment? When they report
that transportation and air pollution are serious problems, are these
merely their own personal judgments, or do they in fact reflect a real
problem in traffic flows and air quality? We have been able to address
this problem in part, through two internal reliability checks,
and through the use of external objective indicators to asses the validity
of the responses for Korea and Japan. We can also make an observation
from a question on family planning policies and estimates of
contraceptive use from the second round of the survey.
Reliability 1. For all cities in the first and
second round of the Inquiries, we asked for data on the city's
population for the current and past two census periods. From this we
could calculate the rate of growth of the city in the past decade. We
could then ask if there was any relationship between the calculated
rate of growth, and an administrator's perception of the size of the
migrant flow. This is only an indirect test, to be sure, but we did
find a very close association between the actual growth rate and the
administrators' perceptions. In cities that were growing rapidly, the
administrators tended to see a great inflow of migrants; for those that
were stagnant or declining, the administrators tended to see no in
migration flows, or an outflow. The relationship was in the predicted
direction and was close and statistically significant.
Reliability 2. In both the first two rounds,
administrators were asked for actual data on migration flows; either
the proportion of total growth that came from migration, or the actual
numbers of migrants. Since these are usually more difficult data to
obtain, not all cities were able to report them. For those who could
report the figures, however, we could examine the direct relationship
between the reported size of the migrant flow, and the administrators'
perceptions of that flow. Here again, there was a very close, and
statistically significant, relationship.
Validity. For Korea and Japan we have annually
published data on cities and countries, which give a vast amount of
information on conditions comparable to those in our Inquiry. For South
Korea we have city data on vehicles per kilometer of road, on numbers
of high school teachers per 100 high school students, on per capita
city revenues, and on the extent of sewage facilities. These objective
measures were found to be closely related to city administrators'
perceptions of problems of traffic volume, secondary education,
financial resources, and sewage.
For Japan we had city data on sewage coverage, the ratio (or numbers)
of city personnel to population, and on the number of doctors per
population. These were found to be closely related (statistically
significant) to city administrators' judgments on the sewage problem,
on the quantity of personnel, and on the quality of health care.
A Minor Discrepancy: views on family planning. In
the second round of the survey, administrators were asked to estimate
the contraceptive prevalence rate in their cities. They were also asked
what efforts had been taken to control fertility. Examining the
estimates, we found that ninety-five out of the one hundred responses
accorded well with na tional statistical reports. Pakistan reported
very low use; China, Korea and Indonesia very high levels, for example.
But five administrators from Indonesia and Malaysia reported levels
were far below the national levels. On the reports of policy we find
the same thing: general agreement with some discrepancies. For the most
part administrators in the poorer countries knew about their national
policies, while most of the Japanese administrators left this response
blank. All of this fits well with official policy in the various
countries. But there were 14 Indonesian and 4 Philippines
administrators who said there was no government policy, although family
planning services were in place. Thus there are slight discrepancies on
the facts of government policies, and on the levels of contraceptive
use. We cannot explain these, but they should lead to some caution in
taking administrators' responses as completely valid.
In reviewing these tests of validity and reliability, the AUICK report
suggested a specific research strategy. When we discover city
administrators whose views or reports appear discrepant, it would be
useful to return to those cities to see if there indeed might be some
specific condition in their environments that produce the discrepant
perception, or whether the discrepancy is the result of
misunderstanding of the question, or actual administrator's error.
Impact of Position. The fourth round of the Inquiry
experimented with questions that would show how different positions
might affect the responses. Administrators were classified by level -
top and middle levels; by gender - male and female; and by years of
service - more or less than 40 years. Then responses could be analyzed
by these categories to see if the administrator's level, gender, or
years of service affected the responses. It is difficult to interpret
this analysis, because the samples were not randomly taken, and the
numbers in any category are quite small, leading to large sampling
errors. Still, some of the findings appear interesting and can be
summarized here, though it is important to keep in mind these technical
statistical problems. It is possible that the results will not stand up
in larger samples.
1. Perception of High Population Growth Rates.
Middle managers were more aware of high population growth rates than
were top level managers in Indonesia, South Korea and Pakistan. Middle
managers were also more likely to see fertility as too high in South
Korea and Pakistan; this was reversed in Indonesia, however, where top
managers were more likely to perceive fertility as high.
2. The necessity of empowering women. Women were more likely
than men to agree with the necessity of empowering women in India,
Japan and South Korea. All administrators in Indonesia agreed, and
there were no women respondents in Pakistan.
3. Economic participation and improved household status. Women
were more likely than men to agree that economic participation would
improve their status at home in Indonesia and Japan. In the other
countries there was no dif ference by gender.
4. Awareness of ICPD. Older and top level managers were more
likely to be aware of the ICPD in Indonesia, Japan and South Korea.
This was reversed in Pakistan, where the younger, middle managers were
more aware, and there was no difference in India.
|
A Bottom Line:
Administrators' Judgments Can be Trusted
From these analyses, we can have a substantial degree of, but not
complete, confidence in the scores and judgments of the urban
administrators responding to the Inquiries. The questionnaire can in
fact provide valid and reliable responses on questions on urban
problems, though one can also expect some discrepancies. These
discrepancies may, however, suggest specific questions to be asked
about specific cities and their characteristics.
For some issues, however, perceptions and judgments might be affected
by the position, tenure, or gender of the respondent. |
|
|