a) Organization and Coverage

This in-depth study was carried out in three cities: Changchun in China, Surabaya in Indonesia, and Cebu City in The Philippines. In each case the local research team was to review the overall economic and demographic condition of the city, and then undertake a small sample survey of about 100-200 persons to examine patterns of migration, conditions of migrants, the condition of fertility and the character of the family planning programme. These were cities included in the previous study of urban infrastructure, and all had as well been included in previous surveys of urban administrators. This provides some opportunity to build on past studies, and to cumulate information about population and urban dynamics in specific cities. These are also, however, cities representative of some of the major differences within Asia, thus they can tell us something about general processes as well as about the specific cities themselves.

The author of the Philippines remarked on the changing place of his country in the ranks of development in the region. In 1950-60 the Philippines had one of the highest levels of education, health and wealth in Asia outside of Japan or Singapore. Today it has lost much of that advantage as countries as diverse as South Korea, China, Thailand, Malaysia and even Indonesia have surpassed it in providing health and welfare for their populations. The stagnation of the Philippines while other countries around it have progressed substantially remains one of the enigmas of the region.


b) Observations

Migration data are deficient. All three studies remark on the lack of good data on migration. Censuses of populations usually include a question on where the respondent was born, but these are often not coded to make them useful. Indonesia, for example, only codes as migrants those who have crossed provincial lines. The Philippines asks more detailed questions, but data are not made available in detailed breakdowns. Since its economic reforms of the 1970s, China's population has moved substantially, and is only weakly captured in census and sample surveys.

The small sample surveys done for this in-depth study are thus of considerable importance. They are not sufficiently large to provide statistically powerful representatives of their countries, but they can provide us with a useful small window on a very important process.

All countries recognize that migration is a major social process, but few expend much time or energy in learning more about the process. This fits with a finding of AUICK's larger Inquiries. City administrators appear to recognize there is little that can be done to stem or redirect migrant streams, and almost no cities or countries actively engage in attempts to control or affect migration.

All cities are growing by migration, and for most this appears to be the major source of population growth. Indonesian demographers estimate that 65 percent of urban growth is due to in-migration, and only 35% to natural increase. Between 1985 and 1992 Changchun grew by over 10%, adding 252,000 people. This included 202,000 migrants, accounting for almost 80% of the growth. We have no estimates for the Philippines, but it does not appear that they would be much different than those for China and Indonesia.

Migrant streams appear roughly similar in these three widely different countries. Migrants come primarily in search of employment, secondarily they are drawn by the search for more or better education. In all cases there is a small proportion, about 10 percent, who migrate for marriage, or for other family reasons.

The majority of migrants, roughly two-thirds, come from the same province, and the majority of these come from rural areas. About a third of the migrants are longer distance migrants, from other provinces. These longer distance migrants come more from urban than from rural areas. A small but no doubt significant portion of the migrants report an intention to move on in the future, to other larger urban centers.

As many other studies have shown, migrants tend to be younger, better educated and to move into better jobs than natives. They also tend to have lower fertility than natives. This was true in China and the Philippines. Surabaya provided a minor exception, however, reminding us that urban-population dynamics can be highly location specific, and policy recommendations must always be sensitive to local conditions. In Surabaya, perhaps because they came from poorer rural areas, migrants tended to be less well educated, to movemore into the informal sector of the economy and to have slightly higher fertility than urban natives.

Family planning differs. The three countries are at quite different stages in their demographic transitions, and their family planning programmes are also at different levels of development. This has implications for the relationship between migration and fertility.

China is the most advanced in the fertility transition. Since the beginning of its new antinatalist policy in the mid 1970s it has had one of the world's strongest family planning programs. Government at all levels exhorts people to have only one, or at most two children, and to postpone child-bearing to the mid 20s. It makes all forms of contraception readily available, as an integral part of a very effective primary health care system developed in the 1950s. It also makes abortion freely available, and therefore safe, for cases of failed contraception. Its overall fertility has fallen to below replacement level since 1975, and its contraceptive prevalence rate is above 70 percent. There is little difference between migrants and non-migrants in knowledge, approval and use of contraceptives.

Indonesia has also had an effective government directed family planning program since 1972, though it is not as advanced as that of China. In the mid 1970s the program was organized in phases, starting in Java and Bali, then extending gradually to the Outer Islands. After participating in a not very successful international MCH/FP experiment directed by the Population Council, Indonesian programme leaders developed their own innovative and highly successful village based distribution programme. This brought effective family planning services down to the smallest and most remote village. It was especially successful in the early years in East Java and Bali, and this shows in Surabaya. Overall Indonesia's total fertility rate fell from 5.6 in 1971 to 2.85 in 1994. As might be expected, however, in this diverse and rapidly changing country, fertility varies from about 1.9 in Jakarta and Surabaya to 4.7 in East Timor. The contraceptive prevalence rate has grown rapidly and now stands at a national level of about 55 percent. It is slightly higher than this in Surabaya, where at level of 67 percent brings fertility to below replacement level, of 1.9. In Surabaya's small survey 77 percent of the non-migrant couples were using contraceptives, as against the slightly smaller 71 percent for the migrants. Migrants also experienced higher infant mortality than did the non-migrants. Reasons for non-use of contraceptives was reported as desire to have children, being unmarried, or not at risk of conception.

The Philippines has the weakest of all the family planning programmes in Southeast and East Asia, with the exception of Myanmar. Its total contraceptive prevalence rate is 40 percent, with only 25 percent using modern methods. The total fertility rate has declined since 1970 from 5.7, but it is still 4.3 for the country as a whole. The Cebu City sample showed a slightly higher rate of use, at 47 percent, and possibly also a slightly lower level of fertility. Reflecting the Roman Catholic religious preferences, a substantial 21% of all contraceptive users in the Cebu study reported using the rhythm method. It is obvious, however, that fertility preferences and behavior are changing, as all women with three children or more report that they do not want more children. On the other hand the reason for non use of contraception reflect weaknesses in the family planning delivery system: women are fearful of side-effects, they do not know where to obtain supplies, or supplies are too expensive. None of these reasons for non-use is expressed in China or Indonesia.

The different stages of development of the family planning programs in these three countries, and the sample cities, are related to conditions broadly conceived as reproductive health. Infant and maternal mortality rates are lower in China and Indonesia than they are in the Philippines, which is alone among the three in having maternal illness and deaths from unsafe abortions rank as an important medical problem.


c) Lessons Learned

      1. Better migration data needed. It is well recognized, and fully illustrated in these studies that migration data are woefully deficient. Migration is recognized as a major force in urban growth, but few countries expend much time and effort to obtain good data on urban migration. Censuses typically include a few questions on origins and movement of people, but they are not often made available, and even in the best cases of 5 year inter- censal sample surveys, the data are available only long after the event. Their use for urban planning and administration is thus severely compromised.

     Some countries, as Japan, Korea and the Scandinavian countries have a population register with addresses and work information on the entire population. Japan is especially well served by its data. On an annual basis, and even at shorter intervals Japanese administrators can know how many people migrate form one city ward to another on a daily basis, and know the flows of people into and out of the city. They also know the characteristics of these migrants, where they come from and where they are headed. These data are highly valuable in charting the flows of people, even if they do not always permit governments to increase, reduce, or redirect the flows.

     Few countries, however, have such effective population registers. What is needed is some innovative thinking on systems of sampling and data collection to obtain at least rough estimates of who is moving, to and from what places, and for what reasons. One could think, for example, of sample surveys of police offices, or of local political or administrative offices in which officials have reason to be sensitive to a neighborhood. With well tested questions, it should be possible to obtain good estimates of those flows that would be of most interest to administrators, those who must plan for social services or lay out long term plans for urban development. Methodological innovation is needed.

      2. Urban migration brings problems and benefits. In these studies and others urban administrators have spoken of the problem of in-migration. It implies a more rapid growth of population, which strains urban infrastructure and services. At the same time, urban administrators are also quick to recognize the benefits of the migration streams. Migrants tend to be young, better educated and productive. They are self selected for energy, drive and the willingness to take risks. They can be, in short, a positive human resource for a community. They are, of course, a more positive source when they can be given jobs and housing, and education for their children, but in any event, they can be a positive force as well as a pressure on resources.

     3. Migrant conditions vary and problems are location specific. As so many of the other lessons learned form these studies, this implies local problem solving. In turn, this implies a necessity to devolve authority, resources and responsibility to local levels. Programmes and projects developed at the center must always be adapted to local conditions, and the people best able to perform that adaptation are the administrators who have experience with specific local conditions.

     4. Family planning programs can be very effective in reducing fertility, and thus relieving pressure from rapid population growth. But family planning also helps to improve the health of women and children, and thus to enhance our human resources. The studies here reflect universal findings: effective family planning programmes enhance maternal and child health, especially among the poor. The opposite is equally and tragically true. Poor or weak family planing services leads desperate women to seek abortions, which too often prove fatal.

     5. Bringing family planning services to migrants always requires local processes suited to the condition of the migrants. Where migrants come from poor rural areas with lower levels of education and find themselves pressed into the informal economic sector for want of better jobs, and when they congregate in slums as the only places available to live, family planning services must be adapted to their local conditions and take account of their lower levels of education. But at the same time, migrants can often be beneficial for family planning services. When they are better educated and in better jobs, they can be counted on to seek out services themselves, in both private and public distribution systems. Thus there will be cases where migrants will need less service than native populations.