C. Reported Current Rates and Sources of City Growth

The reported current growth rates of these cities also varies considerably, as does the source of the growth: in-migration or natural increase. This can be seen in Table 5. Reported in-migration rates average 1.9 percent, natural increase 1.4 percent, and total growth 3.0 percent. Each rate shows wide variation, as might be expected. In-migration rates range from -4.2 to +15.4 percent. Natural increase ranges from -1.1 to 5.5 percent, and total growth ranges from -3.0 to +17.9 percent. Note, however, that these are reported rates, and obviously reflect estimates that, are not necessarily based on census or vital registration data.

As might be expected, growth rates for Japan are far lower than those for the other countries. All three reported growth estimates for Japan are less than 1 percent. Only three cities report estimates of more than 1 percent (Nara 1.1, Kawaguchi 2.0, Urawa 2.3, and Yokkaichi 2.5 percent). Seven of the Japanese cities, on the other hand, report an estimated negative growth rate. The 82 cities outside of Japan reporting estimated growth rates show an average of 3.7 percent in total growth. Only one of these 82 reports a negative growth rate (Magelang in Indonesia, -1.1 percent). Slightly over half of them (44) report total growth rates greater than 3 percent. Both in distributions and mean levels, growth from in-migration is more than twice that from natural increase.

Table 5.
Reported Current Urban Growth Rates, 1989