Views of fertilitv levels. The administrators were asked if they considered the city's birth rate to be too high, satisfactory or too low. Here we received almost 100 percent response, as 128 of the 133 admimistrators responded. As seen in Table 10 almosttwo-thirds found the level satisfactory, 18 percent found ftrtility to be too high and a fifth found it to be to low. Some parts of this finding are expected.

Most of the Japanese administrators (19 of the 28) found their birth rates too low,and the remainder found them satisfactory. This is to be expected of this low fertility society, which completed its demographic transition 40 years ago, and where low fetility and out-migration often signal some decline in the city.

Most Korean administrators (16 of 18) fbund ftrtility to be at a satisfactory level, and only two found it to be too high. Korea had one of Asia's earliest and most successful family plaming programs, and its fertility is now below replacement level, as we saw in table 3.

China is also unexceptional, in that 11 of its 14 admimistrators fbund the birth rate to be satisfactory; only two found it to be too high, and one even found it to be too low. China has experienced a rapid fertility decline in the past two decades, and now its overall fertility is below replacement level. The national family planning program has been extremely successful and it is most pronounced in the urban areas.

Table 10.
Administrators Views of Their
Cities' Fertility Level

Thiland is also unexceptional in that 10 of the 12 admimistrators reporting find the fertility level to be satisfactory, and only 2 find it to be too high. Although it did not start as early as Korea, Thailand has had what is generally corLsidered to be one of the best family planning Programs in Asia, which has produced one of the fastest ftnility declines known anywhere in the world.

Pakistan is also partly unexceptional in that 7 of the 9 admimistrators find the birth rate to be too high. But is interesting that in 2 cities the rate is considered satisfacory. We shall have to ask later if this reflects a lower fertility, or simply a djstinct perception of the administrator.

The other countries present results that appear somewhat at variance with the general view of their reproductive patterns. In Indonesia, only one administrator considered the birth rate too high; 16 found it satisfactory, and as many as 6 found it to be too low. This is at variance with our normal perceptions of Indonesia as a country that has a strong family planning program, is moving rapidIy into low fertility, but still has a TFR well above replacement level (3.1 see table 3 above). In India only half of the admimistrators fbund the birth rate to be too high, but half fbund it to be satisfactory, which is qujte contrary to official policy. In Malaysja, Nepal, and The Philippines substantial numbers of city administrators report satisfactory levels of fertility. Note, too, that Malaysia has the highest level of non-reporting on this question.

Although there is a discrepancy here with both general perceptions and objective indicators showing fertility levels still above replacement level, and with programs working to reduce fertility, it does reflect something we found in the first Inquiry, and which is found again in this survey under the scoring of major problems areas. Two years ago the survey showed that most administrators found and family planning, health and education services, to be satisfactory. We find the same thing this year. Most (68%) of the 100 administrators responding to this question find their family planning services to be atisfactory or advantageous to the city. (Indonesia has no responses to this question.) Thus the administrators may be reflecting the views of their family planning programs, and the success those programs are achieving, rather than the actual levels of fertility, which may be unknown.

Table 11
Views of Fertility Levels by
Views of the Problem in Family Planning Services

This interprelation is partly supported by the data shown in tabl 11. This shows the administrators' assessments of the family planning services by their perceptions of the level of fertility. Of the 59 who find the level of ftrtility satisfactory 44 (75%) find their city's family planning services to be satisfactory or advantageous. Of the 19 who find their fertility, too low, 14 (74%) find family planning services satisfactory or advantageous. On the other hand of the 22 who find the birth rate too high, only 45%find fami1y planning services satisfactory and a third find the FP services problem urgent or major. The only two who find family planning services to constitute an urgent and major problem also view their city's fertility to be too high. These two administrators are from India and Pakistan.

The subsequent series of questions sheds more light on the administrators' views of the birth rate issues. When asked if their cities have programs to affect fertility, almost all (68 of 81) of the administrators outside of Japan and Korea replied that they have programs to reduce fertility. For the most part these are government programs, with responsibility carried at national, state or province and city levels. Japan has no specific programs to affect the birth rate, and 24 of its 29 administrators did not respond to this question.

Moreover, most administrators (61 of the 104 outside of Japan) said the government policy and FP program are in place But there are interesting discrepancies on this point. Substantial numbers of administrators in Indonesia (14) and the Philippines (4) replied that there is no government policy, but family planning is provided. In both cases, the administrators' statements are at variance with official national policy. We do not know if the administrators are reflecting their own views, or if they are simply wrong about policies, or if they perhaps misunderstood the question.

Table 12
Administrators Estimates of
Contraceptjve prevalence

When asked toreport on the level of contraceptive use in their cities, the replies are, again, in part expected, but in part unexpected, as can be seen in table 12. On the expected side, most of the admimistrators in China (all 14), India (6 of the 6 reporting), Pakistan (8/8), The Philippines (6/7), Thailand (10/12), and Japan(6/7) report levels of CPR similar to those generally recorded for the country as a whole. There are only a few responses that diverge from this pattern. Three administrators in Indonesia and two in Malaysla perCeive CPR of less than 20%, which is far below the general average for those countries. One in the Philipplnes perceives a CPR of over 60%, which is substantially above the average for the country as a whole. And six in Korea estimate levels below 60 percent, which is below the overall country average. Again, we do not know whether these discrepancies represent a lack of information, faulty understanding of the question, or a real but distinctive pattern of reproductive behavior for that city.

Overall, the administrators' judgments fit well with informed assessments of fertility and family planning problems in Asia. For the most part East and Southeast Asia have made great progress in developing effective national family planning programs, which have increased contraceptive use and reduced fertility. Southeast Asia has made great progress in family planning programs and is moving toward full contraceptive use and fertility control, but, except for Thailand, has not yet achieved the fertility reductions that East Asia has achieved. South Asia lags in family planning services, contraceptive use and in fertility decline.